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Final Trades: MCD, TLT, NKE, RIG
  + stars: | 2023-09-26 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFinal Trades: MCD, TLT, NKE, RIGThe final trades of the day with CNBC’s Melissa Lee and the Fast Money traders.
Persons: CNBC’s Melissa Lee Organizations: Fast Money
Treasury yields are spiking to levels not seen in over 15 years, causing sell-offs in many of the market's biggest bond funds. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) closed at $89.18 on Monday, which was its lowest close since Feb. 10, 2011, according to FactSet. The Fed's target interest rate is already above 5%, as are short-term Treasury yields. But the long-term decline in bond yields began roughly two decades before that. That trend may finally have reached its turning point, Jim Grant, founder of Grant's Interest Rate Observer, said Tuesday on CNBC's " Squawk Box ."
Persons: Bruno Braizinha, Braizinha, Goldman Sachs, Cecilia Mariotti, Mariotti, Ajay Rajadhyaksha, Jonathan Krinsky, Jim Grant, Grant, BTIG's Krinsky Organizations: Treasury Bond ETF, iShares, Aggregate Bond, Treasury, Bank of America, Barclays, Federal
Final Trade: APA, SLB, TLT, RIVN
  + stars: | 2023-09-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFinal Trade: APA, SLB, TLT, RIVNThe final trades of the day with the Fast Money traders.
Organizations: APA, Fast Money
The recent jump in market interest rates may have caught some ETF investors off guard, and they are now shifting back into short-term bond funds that can better withstand rising yields. Bond yields move in the opposite direction of price, and long-term bonds see their prices hit harder when rates rise. As a result, investors are shifting into short-term bond funds. The following short-term bond ETFs were in the top 10 for net inflows over the past week, according to FactSet. The upward move for bond yields has been particularly acute in the long end of the yield curve.
Persons: Claudio Irigoyen, Fitch, Irigoyen, TLT Organizations: Federal, Treasury, Treasury Bond ETF, Bloomberg, Bank of America Locations: U.S, Japan
A growing number of investors appear to be trying to squeeze additional cash from long-term bonds with the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond BuyWrite Strategy ETF (TLTW) . "Popular Treasury ETFs, such as [iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF ] and [ iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF ], could lose another 4-8% if yields spike by the end of September," Woodard said. The TLTW presents a strategy to thread the needle and offset declines in bond prices with income from selling call options. The fund works by buying the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) and then selling call options with strike prices roughly 2% above the market price of the underlying fund. The TLTW also comes with a higher cost than vanilla Treasury funds.
Persons: Bond, , Jared Woodard, Woodard, iShares, Steve Laipply, TLT, Laipply Organizations: Federal, Bank of America, Treasury, ETF, Treasury Bond ETF, BlackRock, SEC
Look at the Treasury yield curve and The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index, says Rosenberg, who called the 2008 recession. He added: "Even if we could argue about a recession or a soft landing, you have Nirvana priced into the stock market as an asset class right now." 7 places for returns as a recession loomsThe first place Rosenberg said he's bullish on is the Treasury market. Treasury bills have durations of one year or less, while Treasury bonds have durations of 20 years or more. The iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ) is one way to invest in Japanese stocks.
Persons: David Rosenberg, Treasurys, Rosenberg, there's, he's, bullish, underperformance, Warren Buffett Organizations: Treasury, Conference, CNN, Rosenberg Research, Treasury Bond ETF, Regional Banking, Vanguard Utilities, Real, Fidelity MSCI Communication Locations: U.S, Japan
Investors appear to be growing more comfortable with the path for interest rates and are shifting their fixed income bets accordingly. The list of the most popular bond funds by inflows in recent weeks is dominated by large passive funds. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) and Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury ETF (VGIT) have both been two of the 10 most popular ETFs of any type over the past month, according to FactSet's flow data. The iShares 3-7 year Treasury Bond ETF (IEI) and the Vanguard Intermediate-Term Bond ETF (BIV) have also seen sizable inflows recently. Broad bond funds will often have longer duration than short-term funds, even if there is no reference to time frame on the label.
Persons: Scott Chronert, Fitch, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Citi, Federal Reserve, Treasury Bond ETF, Treasury, Bond ETF, Bond Locations: outflows
The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) raked in nearly $2 billion of inflows over the past week, according to FactSet. It has been the most popular fixed income ETF this year, with almost $14 billion in net flows. No other bond ETF has brought in more than $10 billion. With inflation declining and the Fed slowing its pace of hikes, investors do appear to be shifting into longer-dated bonds and away from inflation trades, said Steve Laipply, global co-head of bond ETFs at BlackRock. Short-term ETFs appeared to be more popular with investors last year when the Fed was hiking interest rates aggressively.
Persons: Steve Laipply, Laipply, Schwab, FactSet Organizations: Treasury Bond ETF, Treasury, Treasury ETF Locations: U.S, BlackRock
3 reasons to stick with bonds, according to UBS
  + stars: | 2023-07-14 | by ( Fred Imbert | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
Still, UBS advised its clients to stay overweight bonds, a traditionally safer asset relative to equities. Mark Haefele, CIO of global wealth management at UBS, pointed to three reasons for the bank's preference toward bonds: Haefele said that "good macro news is already priced into the S & P 500, in our view, setting the bar higher for the rest of the year. There are several exchange traded funds investors can use to gain exposure to bonds One of them is the Vanguard Short-Term Bond ETF (BSV) . The fund has a year-to-date total return of 1.95%, according to FactSet. The fund has a total return of 3.94% in 2023, per FactSet, and an expense ratio of 0.15%.
Persons: Mark Haefele, Haefele, , Michael Bloom Organizations: UBS, Federal, Bond, Treasury Bond ETF
The 60/40 portfolio doesn't work anymore, according to Bank of America. If the 60/40 portfolio was on life support last year, this year its demise is now "confirmed," Woodard wrote. Bonds require 40% of the assets in a 60/40 portfolio but have delivered only 25% of the returns since 1920, he noted. Weak bond returns will lead to "another lost decade" for the 60/40 portfolio, in Woodard's words. For income, Bank of America's researchers unveiled a strategy called "dynamic prudent yield" that promises to beat bond indexes while carrying less risk.
Persons: Bonds, Jared Woodard, Woodard, Woodward, Schwab Organizations: Bank of America, Bank of, RSP, Vanguard, Energy, P Metals, Mining, Uranium, Research, Government Bond ETF, First Trust, Income, Muni Bond ETF, Muni, Blackstone Senior Loan, of America, Bond, SPDR Bloomberg Convertible Securities ETF, US, iShares, Securities ETF, VanEck Preferred Securities, Financials, Bloomberg, Treasury Bond ETF, Treasury
Final Trades: Gold, SPY, TLT, NEM
  + stars: | 2023-05-02 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFinal Trades: Gold, SPY, TLT, NEMThe final trades of the day with CNBC’s Melissa Lee and the Fast Money traders.
Final Trades: Amgen, Manhattan Assoc., HYG & TLT
  + stars: | 2023-04-05 | by ( Melissa Lee | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFinal Trades: Amgen, Manhattan Assoc., HYG & TLTThe final trades of the day. With CNBC's Melissa Lee and the Fast Money traders.
Bonds are rebounding in 2023 following one of their worst years ever as the asset class reclaims its function as an effective hedge for stocks. "Bonds are acting like bonds again," said Gina Bolvin, president of Bolvin Wealth Management Group. What's more, because bonds tend to rally during a recession as benchmark rates decline, Devereux said she recommends focusing on high-quality fixed income including U.S. Treasurys, agency mortgage-backed securities and municipal bonds. Within fixed income, she also recommended investors stick to bonds with AAA or AA ratings, saying investors should look for risk in equities rather than lower-rated bonds. "While returns for stocks and bonds have been positive so far this year, that stocks and bonds are largely performing well at different times has made the ride smoother for investors," Bolvin said.
ETF trends reflect a wild first quarter for the stock market
  + stars: | 2023-03-27 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
It's the end of a wild first quarter for stock and bond investors, and ETF flows are reflecting that turmoil. The good news: Despite big market swings , equity and bond ETFs still saw overall inflows in the first quarter. ETF flows year to date: $70 billion inflows Consisting of: Equity: $24 billion inflows Fixed Income: $43 billion inflows Other (currency, etc. ): $3 billion inflows Source: ETF Store While that is still inflow, it is far less than has been typical in recent years. Much of that uncertainty can be seen in a notable pickup in money going into money market funds, traditionally a safe haven asset.
How ETFs are expediting bond market modernization
  + stars: | 2023-03-08 | by ( Kevin Schmidt | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Despite equities having long transitioned to electronic trading, over-the-counter trading remains common in the bond market. Bond ETFs are changing that. "Bond ETFs are 20 years old today, and they trade the same way as some of the technologies in fixed income." Roughly a decade after equity ETFs were first introduced, the first four bond funds launched in July 2002 — the iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond Fund (SHY) , the iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond Fund (IEF) , the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund (TLT) and the iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF (LQD) . "And it just sounds really familiar to the way ETFs had grown with the equity markets."
And as yields on 2-year Treasurys approach 5%, single Treasury bond ETFs are attracting big inflows as investors seek balance in an uncertain inflationary environment. The 2-year Treasury yield closed the month of February on a tear, advancing more than 70 basis points for the month and climbing to 4.878% on Wednesday. The iShares Short Treasury Bond ETF (SHV) is comprised of securities with one to 12 months of remaining maturity. The SPDR Portfolio Short Term Treasury ETF tracks between one and three years. Similarly, VettaFi's Vanguard Short-Term Treasury ETF (VGSH) focuses on exposure to bonds with that maturity duration.
The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield is hovering close to a key level that strategists say could give stock investors a fright. The 10-year Treasury yield broke through resistance in recent sessions and is now a hair below the important 4% level. It's very much an inverse relationship between yields and the stock market," said Katie Stockton, founder of Fairlead Strategies. "That does suggest 4%, which is not a resistance level, but it's certainly a psychological level...It impacts people for nothing more than it's a round number. After the October high, Stockton said the next big level on the 10-year yield chart would be about 5.25%, a resistance level established in 2006.
Yet boring old bonds have just about kept pace, as investors rush to lock in healthy-seeming yields after one of the worst years ever for fixed-income returns. The Federal Reserve's historically aggressive tightening campaign last year gouged debt portfolios but quickly rebuilt the supply of safe yield on offer for today's buyers. I made the case for bonds' value from this perspective in a column here three months ago , just as Treasury yields were peaking. The good news is that "real yields," meaning yields above the market's implied outlook for inflation, remain positive. The American Association of Individual Investors' monthly asset allocation survey for December showed bonds at 14.3%, below the survey's long-term average of 16%.
The combination of cooling prices and a less aggressive Fed could put pressure on a group of ETFs designed to counter inflation or rising rates — or both — that has attracted significant investor interest this year. Rising rate ETFs For example, the Simplify Interest Rate Hedge ETF (PFIX) , which has more than $350 million in assets under management, fell 2.8% on Tuesday. The FolioBeyond Rising Rates ETF (RISR) , which has raked in more than $80 million this year, was off 1.3%. Bet on falling rates, inflation? Treasury funds like the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) and Vanguard Intermediate Term Treasury ETF (VTIP) have expense ratios of 0.15% and 0.04%, respectively, and will rise in value as yields fall.
That means that market rates could fall, even if the Fed continues to hike for the next few months. Bond yields move opposite of price, so the ETFs should go up in value. There are several large ETFs on the market focused on Treasurys, including the iShares' 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF) and 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) . Similarly, Vanguard offers the Intermediate-Term Treasury ETF (VGIT) , which has a fee of just 0.04%. Corporate bonds carry more risk than Treasurys, but should rally if Treasury yields fall.
Bank of America expects Treasurys to show positive returns in 2023. Normally a safe haven in time of market tumult, government bonds have gotten crushed in 2022. While the stock market has performed poorly as well , the S & P 500 is down just 18% — considerably better than the bond market returns. But Hartnett said the last time Treasurys fell more than 5% and were negative the following year happened in 1861. Putting it in perspective, that means "250 years of history say US Treasury returns up in 2023," Hartnett wrote.
Index funds tend to be cheaper. Obviously, index provider S&P Global (SPGI) has a vested interest in promoting passive funds backed to various benchmark indexes. Even legendary investing guru Warren Buffett of Berkshire Hathaway (BRKB) has extolled the virtues of index funds for average investors. He noted that just one of every four active funds beat their passive benchmarks over the ten years ending in June. That’s why some investors aren’t singing a funeral dirge for active stock picking – just yet.
The three major averages closed higher Friday, with the S & P 500 adding 2.37% to close at 3,752.75. Stovall said the S & P 500 had six positive moves of 1% or more in the last 17 trading days, as of Friday. Earnings, earnings, earnings About 150 S & P 500 companies report earnings in the coming week. Technically speaking Scott Redler, partner with T3Live.com, said he is watching a formation in the S & P 500 that could be positive. His first target for the S & P 500 is 3,800.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailTLT trade is counter trend and holds more risk, says Fairlead Strategies' Katie StocktonKatie Stockton, founder and managing partner at Fairlead Strategies, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss Treasury yields, signals of a corrective action to yields in the near-term and positive seasonal influences that contributed to the rally.
Premarket stocks: The bond market is crumbling
  + stars: | 2022-09-29 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +7 min
New York CNN Business —The global bond market is having a historically awful year. Vanguard’s $514.5 billion Total Bond Market Index, the largest US bond fund, is down more than 15% so far this year. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury bond fund (TLT) (TLT) is down nearly 30% for the year. What’s next: The bond market may face fresh volatility on Friday with the release of the Federal Reserve’s favored inflation measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index for August. If the report comes in above expectations, expect bond yields to move even higher.
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